The joys of home rentership

More cheery financial news spotted in this morning’s LA Times:

Nearly one-quarter of U.S. mortgages, or about 11 million loans, are “underwater,” i.e. the houses are worth less than the balance of their loans. While home values are regaining ground — median prices rose 10% in Southern California last month to $275,000 compared with a year earlier — they remain far below the July 2007 peak of $505,000.

Now, I may just be a grizzled old bugger with a liver like a cricket ball, and I’m not what you’d call a…a … (whaddayacall those guys on Wall Street? Not thieving bastards, the other one…) economist. I’m no economist, but it looks to me like my being too half-arsed to get into the red-hot jump-right-in-it’s-awesome property market back in 2007 has paid off to the tune of around two hundred and thirty grand.

I’ll take it in fifties, thanks.

Nearly one-quarter of U.S. mortgages, or about 11 million loans, are “underwater,” i.e. the houses are worth less than the balance of their loans. While home values are regaining ground — median prices rose 10% in Southern California last month to $275,000 compared with a year earlier — they remain far below the July 2007 peak of $505,000.

Please Sir, can I have some more?

And while I’m on the subject of the Winter Olympics. Duffster reported before the Games began (in his post Olympic village root-fest about to get underway) that 100,000 free condoms ad been distributed to the 7,000 athletes in anticipation of the shagging frenzy usual on such occasions. At an average of 14 condoms apiece, some may have thought this would cover the requirements adequately enough, but apparently not.

Swedish Biathlete Sven Diggler was the first to require a top up

Supplies appear to have run dangerously low. Low enough that, on the last Wednesday of the Games, the Canadian Foundation for AIDS Research leapt into action and trucked an extra 25,000 free condoms off to the Olympic Village. CANFAR’s Executive Director, Kerry Whiteside, explained…

When we heard about the condom shortage in Vancouver, we felt it important to respond immediately

Good work Kerry. Although it does rather raise a question.

Are all Winter Olympians so skint they can’t afford to buy their own?

Recession? What recession?

I know some people are in denial but this is ridiculous.

Cashmere loo paper? Aisle 3... right next to the Angora Tampons.

Waitrose buyer, Carla Smith, explains…

Cashmere provides that stamp of quality to any fashion garment from a designer suit to the finest luxury knitwear. It’s indulgent, it’s stylish and it’s helping provide that extra softness to our new premium bathroom tissue collection.

Recession? What recession? I wipe my arse with cashmere…

Swine flu still not an apocalypse

Last August here at Notes, Dr Throttling, in a post entitled Apocalypse Not, referred to the N1H1 flu pandemic as “The Great Swine Flu Swindle”. Recent statistics show that he was pretty much on the money with that assessment:

More than 57 million Americans have become ill from the H1N1 influenza virus and nearly 11,700 have died, according to estimates released Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In a normal influenza season about 36,000 deaths are attributed to influenza and pneumonia with 90% of them being in people age 65 and older.

So, in fact, Swine Flu, tipped to be the next great plague, ended up being so mild that it is responsible for only one third of the fatalities that we might typically expect to see in a normal flu season.

And the biggest winners from all this?

1) Swiss Pharmaceutical company Roche that manufactures Tamiflu, just reported an 8% rise in annual sales , double the industry standard. That followed a 34% rise in profits in 2007 when governments around the world began stocking up on Tamiflu.

2) Your average worker who probably squeezed out a few more sick days by telling the boss they had Swine Flu even if they didn’t.

3) Pigs, with pork sales down in most places since the onset of the flu.

The dangers of sovereign debt default

Greece is featuring regularly in the news at present, chiefly because of the possibility that it will not be able to fulfil its sovereign financial obligations and, therefore, may have to default on its debt repayments.  Greek workers are currently striking in protest at the austerity measures that their government is proposing/implementing. These workers are understandably angry that they are paying the price for many years of political mismanagement and corruption.

Greeks need to realise is that the consequences of default may make life even harsher for them than what their government is now proposing. Default is a situation a country should avoid at all costs (no pun intended).  Just because a country defaults does not mean that its debts are forgiven.  In fact, default can place onerous burdens on a country and its peoples for years.  For a start, borrowing money on global markets becomes that much more difficult, and the higher (penalty) interest rates charged effectively suck more precious money out of the system.  There are several South American countries — serial defaulters — that have periodically lost all access to sovereign debt markets.

Greek farmers protesting

Czar Bonds and repudiation of Russian debt by the Communists

Less common than default is debt repudiation, or refusal to either acknowledge or repay an existing sovereign debt. This situation typically occurs when there is a revolutionary change of government, with all key examples involving Communist takeovers of countries. Russia in 1917, China in 1949, and Cuba in 1960 all repudiated debt incurred by previous political regimes. Note, however, that this is a unilateral act and has little weight in the international community and the debt does not disappear from the records.

Take the case of Russia, for instance, and the repudiation of Czar-era debt in 1917 by the new Soviet government. Much of this debt was contained in Imperial Russian Bonds, also known as Czar Bonds, which were bought up in huge amounts right across Europe. These bonds were issued in the 1900s, when Russia was in dire financial straits under the reign of Czar Nicholas II. To raise necessary capital, these sovereign bonds were sold to the public right across Europe.  They were especially popular in France, where encouraged by the French government of the day, almost 50 per cent of French households invested in them. Consequently, large numbers of French families still hold Czar-era bonds.  Things turn sour in 1917, when following the revolution, the newly formed Communist government refused to honour any borrowings made by the former Czarist regime. As such, the bonds were deemed largely worthless for many decades – many were thrown away or just left to rot at attics.

For the French who retained the bonds, however, hope for a settlement was reignited in 1986 when the Soviet government changed tack and settled with British holders of Czar Bonds. This settlement was not for any altruistic reasons but because the Soviets wanted to get hold of large amounts of Czarist money frozen in 1917 that was still sitting in British banks. Logically, it follows that you cannot, on the one hand, refuse to repay Czar-era debt while, on the other hand, claiming Czar-era money, so a final compromise was reached with the British government and over £46 million was paid out to bondholders.

The French did get a settlement of sorts in 1996 when the Yeltsin government paid $400 million in an agreement with the French government. But large groups of bondholders refused to accept the payment, saying it was far too small, arguing instead that the amount should have been in the billions. In fact, Bloomberg last week reported that these outstanding bonds could be worth $100 billion!

This issue has arisen again recently because the Paris-based International Federative Association for Russian Bond Holders, or AFIPER, announced that it will be trying to recoup part of the century-old debt through the courts. It will be going after Russian property in both Paris and Nice. The property in Nice is the largest Orthodox cathedral outside of Russia and it was returned to Russia a few weeks ago by a French court:

The court upheld the Russian government’s position that since the czarists had bought the land and built the church using state money, the cathedral remains the property of the Russian government, meaning that Moscow could legally reclaim it now that ACOR’s lease has expired. Decades of Soviet uninterest in the property, the court decided, did not undermine Russia’s entitlement to it today.

And in Paris, the bondholders are targeting a recent purchase by the Russian government of the Meteo France building near the Eiffel Tower for an undisclosed sum.

The Russians have vowed to fight any court action, arguing that “when Russia made a $400 million payment that France said “definitively” settled debt incurred to it before 1945.”

Not so, said Eric Sanitas, director of AFIPER, which estimates that as many as 10 million czarist bonds may be in French hands: “The Russian state owes the French people a lot of money and there is no date limit for that, even if some of this debt is more than 100 years old,” .

Russian Czar Bonds can still be found on eBay

Mississippi: the oldest unpaid debt on record

In the oldest and one of the more reprehensible cases of default, then repudiation, of debt was by the state of Mississippi in 1840. As the story goes, Mississippi issued $7 million worth of bonds in the 1830s and used the money to establish two banks—the Planters’ Bank and the Union Bank. Both banks failed spectacularly, brought down by poor investments. Displaying no sense of Southern honour, thenceforth, the State refused to honour the bonds, even holding a referendum in which the people voted not to repay any of the lost money (wouldn’t the people always vote for this if given the choice?).

But this did not let Mississippi off the hook. The London based Corporation of Foreign Bond Holders (CFBH), set up in 1868 to protect the interest of British bondholders who invested anywhere in the world, pursued repayment of these bonds for more than 100 years. A request by the CFBH for a settlement of this debt in 1878 was responded to by the Mississippi legislature with a resolution passed in 1875:

“By the provisions of the present Constitution, the State is prohibited from ever legalising these bonds, the clause, which was adopted in 1875, reading: “Nor shall the State assume, redeem, secure, or pay any indebtedness claim to be due by the State of Mississippi, to any person, association or corporation whatsoever, claiming the same as owners, holders, or assignees, of any bond or bonds known as the Union Bank bonds, or Planters’ Bank bonds.”

The CFBH’s pursuit of this debt across time can be seen in letters such as the following, which was sent to the New York Times in 1913. In it, the CFBH seeks to correct an earlier assertion in the newspaper about the good standing of Mississippi’s then-current credit position.

 “Mississippi, between 1831 in 1838, borrowed $7 million, for which she obtained full value, and the proceeds of which she invested in a Planters’ and Union Banks.  As long as the banks were financially successful the State paid her debt to the holders of the bonds.  But when bad times came and the banks failed, largely, it is believed, owing to unfortunate speculation, Mississippi suspended payments, and has since consistently refuse to recognize defaulted obligations.”

When the Soviets settled their Czar-era debt with the British in 1986, Michael Gough, director of the Corporation of Foreign Bond Holders stated that “The lesson is that defaulted debts don’t go away, and it would be a mistake for any debtor to think that we will forget. We are still after Mississippi 145 years later.”

Unfortunately, two years later, in 1988, the Corporation of Foreign Bond Holders was placed in receivership. Mississippi never paid up but, for what it is worth, Mississippi was never again able to raise money on the London financial markets.

Historical injustice: U.S. involvement in the death of the Haitian Pig

I’ve been waiting for John Pilger to produce a piece on Haiti and when it came, it was approximately what I expected — some decent polemical material mixed with a vitriolic attack Continue reading

Is this the end of America’s love affair with the car?

Car ownership numbers peaked in Japan in 1990 and have been trending downwards for twenty years. There is now a worry in auto manufacturing circles that Continue reading